UKRAINE ON THE BRINK – AT 10:05 A.M. ET:  Yes, there's an agreed-upon ceasefire involving Ukraine.  But how valid is it?  From Jennifer Rubin at WaPo: 

It is not often Europe gets to throw a country to the wolves twice. But that’s precisely what the European Union — quickly applauded by the Obama administration — has done with regard to Ukraine. To call it a “truce” is a farce.

“The cease-fire between Ukraine and Russia is yet another victory for Vladimir Putin['s] revanchist campaign against the West. The terms are almost identical to the failed cease-fire from last September that only emboldened Russia,” observed Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.). “Now, Putin has killed more innocent people and seized more territory and will get greater autonomy for eastern Ukraine, in exchange for nothing more than promising to keep his already-broken promises.” Indeed, the Russian president effectively silenced talk of sanctions while the fate of the border and of the Eastern provinces remain uncertain. As The Post editorial board pointed out: “Most significantly, control over the border between Russia and Ukraine would not be returned to Kiev until the end of the year — and then only after a ‘constitutional reform‘ acceptable to Moscow and its surrogates grants powers to Russian-controlled regions. Without border control, Ukraine cannot prevent Russian forces, supplies and agents from flowing across. While the deal promises a withdrawal of ‘foreign armed formations‘ from Ukraine, there is no deadline — and Mr. Putin’s contention is that NATO has ‘legions‘ in the country but Russia does not.”

Once again President Obama eschews tough measures in favor of “diplomacy,” but diplomacy severed from economic or military leverage becomes a giveaway. We’ve seen it in the talks on Syria: Tyrants don’t willingly give up gains on the battlefield at the negotiating table. And we suspect the same dynamic is at work in the “P5+1″ talks with Iran. Without a credible use of force or threat of new sanctions, all the West can do is give in to Iranian demands or see talks “fail.” Cotton remarks, Obama’s “failure to support our allies has repeatedly empowered Russia and undermined American interests, from Ukraine to Syria to Egypt and points in between. The United States should move immediately to provide lethal weaponry to Ukraine and President Obama must stop accommodating Vladimir Putin before he threatens our NATO allies and further destabilizes Europe.”

COMMENT:  Tom Cotton is emerging as exactly the kind of major intellectual force for conservatives that we thought he'd be.  And, of course, his sharpness on foreign policy vastly exceeds that of Field Marshal of the United States Barack Obama.  Cotton is a potential president.

Putin must be pleased by the latest cave-in, presented to the people of the world as a truce.  It is a truce in the same sense that the Munich agreement of 1938 was a truce.

The key question in Europe is whether, once he gobbles up Ukraine, Putin starts threatening East European nations that are members of NATO.  That probably won't occur until we have a new president, so Barack can safely go on another Hawaiian vacation.

February 13, 2015